2024
Bridge Over Troubled Water
Helsinki, 27 - 29 June
The theme of the 2024 EBLC Northern Light Summit was Bridge Over Troubled Water. However, most of the time was spent analysing troubled waters than building new bridges. During the two and a half days, key discussion themes included e.g., the interconnection of geopolitics and technology, Europe’s competitiveness, the upcoming US elections, the future of China and India and European security.
The importance of cooperation between the Global West and Global South was highlighted, as their discord could lead to gains for the Global East, including China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. The AI revolution was seen as a stark reminder that complacency can be fatal, urging swift adaptation to technological advancements. It was agreed that regulation is important for the development of AI, but Europe must not regulate itself out of the game. Instead, there should be a focus on international cooperation for AI regulation.
It was agreed that a soft landing is the baseline scenario for the world economy, despite the variance of recovery in different areas. The global economy has seen a slight positive turnaround with inflation rates lowering and growth rates stabilizing, but also that trade patterns are changing. It was noted that the current geopolitical and economic situation resembles the Cold War, however, a key difference is that there is no removal of trade barriers within the blocs. The role of the so-called non-aligned bloc is much bigger than the last time, further highlighting the importance of cooperation between the Global West and Global South.
To address the issue of trade traps between the blocs, the radical idea of forming a free-trade alliance among like-minded countries was discussed. It was also agreed that close transatlantic relations between the US and the EU are as important as ever. Additionally, ideas like forming a making massive investments in green technologies were proposed, with a sense of optimism about their potential benefits.
US Presidential elections were discussed from the point of view of what a Trump vs. Biden 2.0 presidency would look like in terms of foreign and security policy. The first Biden-Trump debate on June 27 was strongly in mind of the attendees during the conference. It was even speculated whether we will even see a Trump vs. Biden election, or if either party could still change their candidate ahead of the elections.
The attendees also discussed the state of Chinese economy to try to determine whether it has seen its peak. Compared to the strong growth experienced in India, China was seen slowing down partly due to its problems relating to population changes and real estate sector related problems. India was concluded to be closer to the West than ever before and that the West should be active, reciprocal and pragmatic in its approach to India. Its recent election was seen as a victory for democracy, propelling the nation toward the vision of it becoming a ten trillion dollar economy.
European security, being one of the key themes of the conference, was discussed from the point of view of how Europe can strenghten its own security. NATO's rejuvenated spirit prompted a debate on whether to maintain NATO’s 2% defence spending goal or aim even higher.
As the theme of the conference this year suggests, the Summit concluded with a session on how to build bridges for a better future. The importance of optimism even amidst troubled water was agreed upon by all participants.
Speakers included Alexander Stubb, the President of Finland, Gita Gopinath, First Deputy Managing Director of IMF, Mathias Döpfner, Axel Springer, CEOs, Chairs and experts from Europe, India, China and US.